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Post by billlawrence on Dec 14, 2009 8:14:22 GMT -5
they would just have the seer come forward and leave Tears out to dry. that is exactly why I mentioned giving Gav "the benefit of the doubt". Wanted to plant the seed that the village should stick by him. Of course they should leave him hanging in the wind. Without PMs, the seer has no way to find the guard. The guard will have no choice but to protect Tears, cause he/she wont know who the seer is..... Basically, we can get lucky and kill the guard or seer with any shot. 23 players, minus us (hopefully 5) and Tears, means we'll have about a 1 in 8 shot of hitting a special on Day 1.
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blu
Junior Member
Posts: 85
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Post by blu on Dec 14, 2009 8:20:42 GMT -5
So, LO and Hillbill,
How are you guys going to play it? As far as I can tell, neither of you are usually seen unless you're not all that active.
Are you guys going to be active or more reserved?
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drcox
Full Member
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Post by drcox on Dec 14, 2009 8:28:36 GMT -5
I plan on being as active as possible. Luckily, two of the people that tend to get a bead on me early are team mates. I hate to do this but the other person that can usually read me like a book is SI!. I think that should probably be our first target.
Jewwy, can you confirm or deny a cleared board. The rules read like there isn't one but I want to make sure.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 14, 2009 8:29:17 GMT -5
As far as I can tell, neither of you are usually seen unless you're not all that active. Are you kidding? I was seen on DAY 1 in 6 straight games at one point.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 14, 2009 8:30:51 GMT -5
I am incapable of playing "reserved". If I'm not posting, its cause I'm not around.
And I'm fine with taking out SI (ya know, unless we get a lead on a special).
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drcox
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Posts: 112
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Post by drcox on Dec 14, 2009 9:17:34 GMT -5
Seriously, I just saw our newest member and I wouldn't be surprised if the seer targets one of us each day.
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drcox
Full Member
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Post by drcox on Dec 14, 2009 9:21:55 GMT -5
What do you guys think about making a big play? I'm talking something like coming out and claiming seer. Currently, I am in the opinion that if we don't take out a special today or tomorrow we are effed.
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Post by zykezero on Dec 14, 2009 9:22:46 GMT -5
Blu, make jokes about asian prostitution. And you'll make a fine kelso.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 14, 2009 9:22:47 GMT -5
Zyke? Damn you Jewwy!
Lets think this through before we do anything rash, Ed.
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Post by zykezero on Dec 14, 2009 9:27:25 GMT -5
I'm sorry did I disappoint LO? Maybe I'll just go back and time and not join the mafia.
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drcox
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Posts: 112
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Post by drcox on Dec 14, 2009 9:31:08 GMT -5
Zyke? Damn you Jewwy! Lets think this through before we do anything rash, Ed. Oh, I agree. I'm just saying its may be something to discuss. Looking at the player pool we don't have a lot of villagers that we can count on to spread discord. I just think something is going to have to happen that gets them in askew.
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blu
Junior Member
Posts: 85
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Post by blu on Dec 14, 2009 9:32:06 GMT -5
This is how I think things will play out.
LO - Seen day 2 Hill bill - 3 Zeke - 4 I will be lynched day 1 or 2 on general principle (that's how they do) Everyone will accuse Tenn for about 5 days but won't actually get to it until the end.
I'm for a big play, we just need to think it out. We have time. Nothing rash.
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Post by zykezero on Dec 14, 2009 9:33:36 GMT -5
I seem to be surviving longer and longer in all of these games.
I say we beat Gooch over her head with that damn tea-cup guitar of hers.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 14, 2009 9:35:50 GMT -5
I'm sorry did I disappoint LO? Maybe I'll just go back and time and not join the mafia. Nothing personal, man. Didn't mean it as a slight at you. We just have too many attention-getting players.
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Post by zykezero on Dec 14, 2009 9:37:20 GMT -5
Haha I know LO. But maybe it will work for us.
longodds AND zyke on the same team? Blasphemy! This just won't do! and then they will kill the guard.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 14, 2009 9:41:14 GMT -5
Ok, the fake seer move would be tough to pull off.
Gav wants the seer to come out as his character. We'd have an easy play if one of us had revealed before Gav, but I dont believe any of us did. Now, if any of us wants to claim seer, our only shot to do so would be to do it TODAY.
Basically, someone would have to come out and say "I think Tears fucked up with his move, and since he is the vig and I don't think the mafia will kill him, I'm leaving him out to dry. Guard, hook me up. I am the seer."
Any sort of delay until tomorrow would mean we would need to know Gav's character.
The problem with the play is that it has limited upside, IMO. What do we gain? We mislead the village (for a short amount of time). It doesn't get us the real seer or guardian (unless they are stooooopid).
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 14, 2009 9:45:00 GMT -5
Oh, and as for the odds, here ya go:
Blind odds (assuming we can't eliminate anyone via posts) of hitting a special:
Day 1 - 2/17 (11.7%) Day 2 - 2/14 (14.2%) Day 3 - 2/11 (18.1%)
This assumes no mafia deaths and maximum village deaths (best case scenario). And obviously, the odds for one day assume the preceding day was a miss (on specials).
In my experience, if we don't take out the guard or seer by Day 3, we are in for a world of hurt.
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Post by zykezero on Dec 14, 2009 9:48:46 GMT -5
giving up one of our guys to try and get Tears. Eh. I never believed that works, IMO that only works when the mafia is the first one to jump on it and claim a special.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 14, 2009 9:49:16 GMT -5
I dont want to get Tears. We need his help.
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blu
Junior Member
Posts: 85
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Post by blu on Dec 14, 2009 9:50:41 GMT -5
The seer has to come out eventually. What will happen is the seer will clear himself by calling Tear's character. That'll happen tomorrow.
A fake seer move depends solely on a seer coming forward day 1 and we'll have a 50/50 shot of nailing him (based on the guardian choosing between 2 people).
It's a long shot, but if one of you think you're toast by tomorrow anyway...
I say we play it out normal and try to find the specials. As it is now, both guardian and seer are vulnerable. After tomorrow, the seer will be guarded.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 14, 2009 9:53:10 GMT -5
I say we play it out normal and try to find the specials. As it is now, both guardian and seer are vulnerable. After tomorrow, the seer will be guarded. I agree about playing it normal. But I dont think the seer will be guarded tomorrow. The seer will come out by claiming Tears' character, but only Tears will get the reveal. Everyone else will be in the dark, including the guardian. Unless they realize the track they've taken and leave Gav out in the wind, the seer and guard will both be vulnerable for awhile.
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blu
Junior Member
Posts: 85
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Post by blu on Dec 14, 2009 9:56:02 GMT -5
Unless they realize the track they've taken and leave Gav out in the wind, the seer and guard will both be vulnerable for awhile. We can only hope. But they will see that the won't be able to communicate. Someone is bound to realize that the seer needs to come forward and leaving a vig out in the open is not that really a threat.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 14, 2009 10:11:16 GMT -5
who wants to take a small risk but appear pro-village?
As it stands, the seer won't be known to Gav until tomorrow. That means both seer and guard are vulnerable to the lynch.
So, it appears as if the village needs a volunteer. Someone should mention this, but it is dangerous, cause the village might turn on the person that brought it up and force them to be the volunteer.
If someone does volunteer, we narrow our search by 1.
We might actually gain more by letting the lynch go whichever way it decides (riskier for us, but huge potential payoff if it stumbles on a special and forces a reveal).
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blu
Junior Member
Posts: 85
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Post by blu on Dec 14, 2009 10:16:58 GMT -5
I could because I've been pretty pro volunteer almost every game.
The only draw back is that no one has thrown a vote yet. People are waiting for something to happen. Could look suspicious at this point. Someone should champion for a volunteer, but only after some all-over-the-place voting.
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drcox
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Post by drcox on Dec 14, 2009 10:20:18 GMT -5
You know gav has a pattern of coming out way too early with his powers. I wanted to choke him in the VA game when he came out as a seer with a limitation.
And you guys are right the fake seer play is too risky without enough reward. Especially with the kibosh put on the reveals right now.
LO, I think the village will come to that conclusion on their own. Probably, Yzzie will point it out, the volunteer idea that is.
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