blu
Junior Member
Posts: 85
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Post by blu on Dec 16, 2009 6:29:13 GMT -5
I'm out until 330 at the earliest. There is enough going on that I should be an afterthought.
I've voted so I'm staying out of the thread.
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drcox
Full Member
Posts: 112
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Post by drcox on Dec 16, 2009 9:39:36 GMT -5
I think I'm going to nudge the Celtic = mafia sentiment along with post countering your analysis of his vote LO. Tell me if this sounds off.
The position of these three votes are definitely mafia sweet spots for voting for a falling teammate.
I disagree with you on the analysis of Celtic's vote. That to me might be the most suspect. Everyone knows zyke would eventually be lynched or vigged just due to his reputation. I think Zyke would be the perfect patsy for a mafia to bus for that reason. By breaking a tie Celtic would gain credibility and drop off a lot of suspect lists and the mafia would really lose much except moving up Zykes eventually lynching/vigging. Plus Zyke's posts have very little substance. Not much for the village to gain from analyzing his suspects. Celtic was also the fist person to put Zyke on the radar. He is a very smart player and knows the village would turn toward their attention towards Zyke soon enough and why not get ahead of the wave by pointing out first.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 16, 2009 9:42:22 GMT -5
for a mafia to throw under the bus
missing a bit, no?
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drcox
Full Member
Posts: 112
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Post by drcox on Dec 16, 2009 9:43:04 GMT -5
LO, also I think we are going to have to postion our selves as opposing view points to make a valid excuse as to why we are both still alive.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 16, 2009 9:43:42 GMT -5
I like it Ed. You might also want to include an ending bit concluding that you think that either Celtic or Mahoney is mafia, basically supporting Runs conclusion (which he failed to explain).
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 16, 2009 9:44:57 GMT -5
LO, also I think we are going to have to postion our selves as opposing view points to make a valid excuse as to why we are both still alive. Sure, but lets do it gradually. This can be the first of our apparent disagreements. Honestly, I think blu and I both go down by Day 6. We need to position you and Tennessee to bring this thing home for us.
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drcox
Full Member
Posts: 112
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Post by drcox on Dec 16, 2009 9:47:09 GMT -5
Yeah it will have to be a natural progression. I think we need to also start thinking about taking out tears. We need to control the deaths and tears is a bit of wild card.
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Post by dudemeister on Dec 16, 2009 9:47:40 GMT -5
Let me know what you need me to do.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 16, 2009 9:49:37 GMT -5
Yeah it will have to be a natural progression. I think we need to also start thinking about taking out tears. We need to control the deaths and tears is a bit of wild card. I think we take him out a bit later. As the numbers decrease. Right now he is a liability to the village. I'd rather kill blindly and hope to hit the other special. Once the numbers decrease we should take him out because a) the odds of his shots being accurate goes up, and b) one less cleared player for the village to trust. Definitely don't think we take him out today. We can reevaluate tomorrow.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 16, 2009 9:49:59 GMT -5
Let me know what you need me to do. Live, my man. Live.
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Post by dudemeister on Dec 16, 2009 9:52:05 GMT -5
Let me know what you need me to do. Live, my man. Live. This... I can do!
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drcox
Full Member
Posts: 112
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Post by drcox on Dec 16, 2009 10:09:53 GMT -5
Does the Risen analysis sound too wishy/washy.
he position of these three votes are mafia sweet spots for voting for a falling teammate.
Celtic- LO, I disagree with you on the analysis of Celtic's vote. That to me is the most suspect. Everyone knows zyke would eventually be lynched or vigged just due to his reputation. I think Zyke would be the perfect patsy for a mafia to throw under the bus for that reason. By breaking a tie Celtic would gain credibility and drop off a lot of suspect lists and the mafia wouldn't lose anything except moving up Zykes eventually lynching/vigging. Plus Zyke's posts have very little substance. Not much for the village to gain from analyzing his suspects. Celtic was also the first person to put Zyke on the radar. And zyke added this little nugget when if looked like his death was imminent.
:?
Mahoney- This looks more like a self preservation vote than anything else to me. However, I think if Mahoney is mafia, I think they knew he had a better chance of slipping back below the radar between him and zyke. I would be highly surprised if Celtic and Mahoney are both village, and even more surprised if they are both village.
Risen - This vote analysis I do agree with. This one is 50/50 at best but I'm leaning more towards village. If my above theory is correct on celtic I don't think another mafia would pile on. Too suspect. However, if celtic were to turn up village I would revisit this analysis.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 16, 2009 10:16:04 GMT -5
3 things. 1) you have a mistake in the last line of the Mahoney section. Village both times. 2) In the Risen section, I think after the "leaning more toward village" sentence you can insert a sentence that basically says "analyzing this vote is really tough without knowing what the Celtic and/or Mahoney votes were all about". 3) be careful with formatting. Specially if you are cut and pasting from this board to that one. Preview is your friend.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 16, 2009 10:33:49 GMT -5
Ok, a quick glance at the special possibilities:
1) Runs is the guard, out in the open, and poppy was the seer.
2) Someone else is the guard, and poppy was the seer. This is fine. If we continue to ignore Runs, the village may turn on him and lynch him. By now, the real guard MUST be suspicious of Runs, and considering coming forward and outing him as a liar. The real guard probably hasnt come forward yet to either protect Tears or just hoping to cockblock one of our kills, but that might end soon.
3) Someone is the seer, and poppy was the guard. This is our worst case scenario. Someone out there is gathering data and planning on coming out and clearing village or revealing mafia. Every day that goes by increases the chance of the seer stepping forward cause they'll have more to share, and they'll be fearing the chances that we kill him/her before the intel is shared.
Thats it, right?
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Post by dudemeister on Dec 16, 2009 10:52:50 GMT -5
Should we take a shot at runs tonight?
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 16, 2009 10:55:19 GMT -5
Should we take a shot at runs tonight? I think we let him sit another day. As I said above, there is a shot the real guardian will come out and accuse him. There is also the chance that the village turns on him out of confusion (because the mafia has ignored him). If we target him and he is guarded, we confirm his villageness. Not a risk I think we should take now.
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Post by dudemeister on Dec 16, 2009 11:02:22 GMT -5
Makes sense to me. So who are we thinking for tonight then?
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 16, 2009 11:08:36 GMT -5
Nice job on the post, Ed.
If we target Dreams we'd officially be the gayest mafia ever. 3 female players dead. 3 female characters from the show dead.
Lets not kill Dreams.
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drcox
Full Member
Posts: 112
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Post by drcox on Dec 16, 2009 11:09:48 GMT -5
We need a good random kill tonight. I still wanna kill yzzie, but she is being so un-helpful to the village right now I guess we should leave her around. However, something about her makes me think she is the seer.
Hear me out for a second.
Runs coming out as guard would get him seered day one in my opinion. He gets cleared, but poppy the actual guard dies and no one steps up to challenge his role. yzzie has been essentially non existent this game. She is a non target for the mafia, cause she isn't ading to the conversation and if the lynch starts going her way she busts the seer card and clears runs. This may be a reach but I think its a likely scenario.
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drcox
Full Member
Posts: 112
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Post by drcox on Dec 16, 2009 11:14:52 GMT -5
Alright guys, I'm out till this afternoon but I will be checking in from my phone. If something comes up I try to pull over and address it.
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Post by dudemeister on Dec 16, 2009 11:22:40 GMT -5
I'm going to be away for the next four to five hours too. Hopefully, things will stay uneventful.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 16, 2009 16:06:50 GMT -5
We need a good random kill tonight. I still wanna kill yzzie, but she is being so un-helpful to the village right now I guess we should leave her around. However, something about her makes me think she is the seer. Hear me out for a second. Hmm. Yzzie isn't really a priority to me, at least not now. She has checked out it seems. I don't think she would do that as a special (or mafia). She even posted in the Arrested Development game thread and said she loved the show, that she would read along, but that she had NO motivation to play whatsoever. I think she is just burned out. Plus, the village is a bit suspicious of her. Given our identities, we really need to focus on those that they village is ignoring completely. Yzzie helps us hide, IMO.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 16, 2009 16:07:33 GMT -5
Oh, and I just saw that she volunteered to die and then voted for herself. Now I really think we ignore Yzzie.
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Post by billlawrence on Dec 16, 2009 16:12:34 GMT -5
2nd day in a row that Plastic votes after me and credits my reasoning (yesterday for Spaced, today for Risen). Could he be trying to hide behind me?
I said earlier I liked Risen as a random kill and cause I thought he was hiding something.
Now I like Plastic too. I think killing either of them may make the other lynchable soon.
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drcox
Full Member
Posts: 112
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Post by drcox on Dec 16, 2009 16:17:41 GMT -5
Yeah I now agree on the yzzie thing. The vote for herself kinda stole my thunder. Anyways, I am curious as to who tears will take out. I'm thinking it will be mahoney if the vote doesn't go on him.
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